Metals

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Gold, as spot XAUUSD from a broker (a CFD-style price, not a futures contract), from 2004: opening-range and noise-area breakouts, golden crosses, EMA crossovers, RSI 30/70, the TTM Squeeze, WaveTrend, the head and shoulders pattern and the Turtle rules, on 1-minute to daily bars. Gold futures (GC) appear in one test and sit in both Futures and Metals.

01The tests

Start with the comparison: Best gold trading strategy? All 14 gold tests side by side.

TestInstrument and dataVariants triedPassed every gateVerdict
Gold Opening-Range BreakoutXAUUSD spot (broker data)120Buried · Costs
Golden Cross Backtest: Daily Bars on S&P 500 Futures & GoldES futures + XAUUSD spot (daily bars)80Inconclusive · Too few trades
Golden Cross Backtest: 1H Bars on S&P 500 Futures & GoldES futures + XAUUSD spot (1-hour bars)240Inconclusive · Data quality
EMA 9/21 Crossover Backtest: 1H Bars on ES, NQ & Gold FuturesES, NQ and GC futures (1-hour bars)120Buried · No proven edge
EMA 9/20 Crossover Backtest: Gold on 15-Minute and 1-Hour BarsXAUUSD spot (broker data, 15-minute and 1-hour bars)240Buried · No proven edge
Turtle Trading Backtest: Daily Gold, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (daily bars)40Buried · Fragile
Noise Area Breakout Backtest: Gold (XAUUSD), Asia, London and New YorkXAUUSD spot (1-minute bars)60Buried · No proven edge
RSI 30/70 Strategy Backtest: Gold, 5-Minute and 1-Hour Bars, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (broker data)80Buried · No proven edge
TTM Squeeze Strategy Backtest: Gold (XAUUSD), 1-Hour Bars, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (broker data)40Buried · Overfit
WaveTrend Indicator Backtest: Gold (XAUUSD), 1-Hour Bars, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (broker data)40Buried · No proven edge
Head and Shoulders Pattern Backtest: Gold (XAUUSD), 15-Minute Bars, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (broker data)40Buried · No proven edge
VWAP Standard Deviation Bands Strategy on Gold: Mean Reversion Backtest on XAUUSD 5-Minute BarsXAUUSD spot (broker data), 5-minute20Buried · Costs
Gold 5-Minute Trend Pullback Strategy Backtest: EMA 20/50 With a 200 EMA Filter on XAUUSDXAUUSD spot (broker data), 5-minute40Buried · No proven edge
TheStrat Strategy on Gold: 2-1-2, 3-1-2 and 2-2 Reversals on 22 Years of XAUUSDXAUUSD spot (broker data), 60-minute40Buried · Costs
Previous Day High and Low Strategy on Gold (XAUUSD): Sneaky Pivot BacktestXAUUSD spot (broker data)40Buried · No proven edge
Engulfing Candle Strategy Backtest: 22 Years of Gold on the 1-Hour ChartXAUUSD spot, 1-hour bars from 1-minute data40Buried · Costs
Best Time to Trade Gold (XAUUSD): 22 Years of Minute Data, Hour by HourXAUUSD spot (broker data)30Buried · No proven edge
H1 Open Trap Strategy Backtest: Gold (XAUUSD), 1-Minute Data, 2004 to 2026XAUUSD spot (broker data)40Buried · No proven edge

135 variants tried across 18 full write-ups, 0 passed every gate. Verdicts follow the protocol: Buried means at least one gate failed; “No proven edge” means a statistically convincing edge was not demonstrated, not that none exists.

02How these were tested

Spot gold (XAUUSD) from an IC Markets MT4 demo-server history, 22 years from 2004, tested in R-multiples or in dollars per ounce (the golden cross, a daily-bar rule with no stop, also in percent). This is a spot/CFD price, not a futures contract, so real fills and costs differ. Cost assumed: $0.30 per ounce per round trip, with no slippage; the gold opening-range post shows what happens at the lower cost the broker publishes.

03What is not here yet

Other metals, and gold futures, which would be added to this page as well as to Futures. Gold on other timeframes or with other ideas.