Trend following vs mean reversion, 2026-10-27T13:53:44.695Z

Check 1. Labels
  [ok] 416 labels for 416 versions, 0 duplicates, every version labelled
  [ok] 101 gold versions, labels equal the gold guide's styles

Check 3. Gate 4 and control percentiles
  [ok] gate files found and equal to check_site's gates for 416 of 416 versions; control percentile printed for 416

All checks passed.

Versions by kind: {"trend":204,"breakout":101,"meanrev":96,"pattern":12,"time":3}

Questions 1-4, by family (cell-weighted)
  Trend following  cells  48 versions 305 | gross>0 76% | before 24% costs 29% positive 47% | gate4 22% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 3 | cost share 77% | trades/yr 164 | ctl pct 77.4 (305)
  Mean reversion   cells  14 versions  96 | gross>0 70% | before 30% costs 26% positive 44% | gate4 17% | 4+ gates 15% | all6 0 | cost share 123% | trades/yr 84 | ctl pct 68.4 (96)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  15 | gross>0 81% | before 19% costs 46% positive 35% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 267% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 90.6 (15)
  shuffle (trend following - mean reversion): grossPos diff 6 pts p 0.547; survived diff 3 pts p 0.816; gate4 diff 5 pts p 0.600; g4plus diff -6 pts p 0.403

By kind
  Trend            cells  29 versions 204 | gross>0 74% | before 26% costs 34% positive 40% | gate4 14% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 1 | cost share 83% | trades/yr 169 | ctl pct 76.4 (204)
  Breakout         cells  21 versions 101 | gross>0 77% | before 23% costs 21% positive 56% | gate4 32% | 4+ gates 8% | all6 2 | cost share 72% | trades/yr 152 | ctl pct 78.6 (101)
  Mean reversion   cells  14 versions  96 | gross>0 70% | before 30% costs 26% positive 44% | gate4 17% | 4+ gates 15% | all6 0 | cost share 123% | trades/yr 84 | ctl pct 68.4 (96)
  Pattern          cells   3 versions  12 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 50% positive 25% | gate4 58% | 4+ gates 17% | all6 0 | cost share 470% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 96.9 (12)
  Time             cells   1 versions   3 | gross>0 100% | before 0% costs 33% positive 67% | gate4 0% | 4+ gates 0% | all6 0 | cost share 85% | trades/yr 251 | ctl pct 89.0 (3)

Question 5. Long-and-short versions only
  Trend following  cells  46 versions 200 | gross>0 72% | before 28% costs 32% positive 40% | gate4 23% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 1 | cost share 89% | trades/yr 199 | ctl pct 80.7 (200)
  Mean reversion   cells  13 versions  69 | gross>0 62% | before 38% costs 26% positive 36% | gate4 18% | 4+ gates 8% | all6 0 | cost share 168% | trades/yr 85 | ctl pct 68.8 (69)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  11 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 38% positive 38% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 484% | trades/yr 385 | ctl pct 96.4 (11)
  shuffle: grossPos diff 10 pts p 0.427; survived diff 4 pts p 0.737; gate4 diff 5 pts p 0.609
  long-only versions:
  Trend following  cells  23 versions 105 | gross>0 83% | before 17% costs 27% positive 56% | gate4 18% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 2 | cost share 69% | trades/yr 126 | ctl pct 66.0 (105)
  Mean reversion   cells   6 versions  27 | gross>0 82% | before 18% costs 20% positive 63% | gate4 15% | 4+ gates 34% | all6 0 | cost share 64% | trades/yr 50 | ctl pct 63.4 (27)
  market index:
  Trend following  cells  24 versions 119 | gross>0 71% | before 29% costs 23% positive 48% | gate4 16% | 4+ gates 10% | all6 2 | cost share 42% | trades/yr 199 | ctl pct 58.8 (119)
  Mean reversion   cells   6 versions  21 | gross>0 79% | before 21% costs 21% positive 58% | gate4 29% | 4+ gates 29% | all6 0 | cost share 41% | trades/yr 100 | ctl pct 78.2 (21)
  market gold:
  Trend following  cells   8 versions  70 | gross>0 96% | before 4% costs 35% positive 60% | gate4 59% | 4+ gates 19% | all6 1 | cost share 96% | trades/yr 151 | ctl pct 98.6 (70)
  Mean reversion   cells   3 versions  16 | gross>0 50% | before 50% costs 33% positive 17% | gate4 17% | 4+ gates 8% | all6 0 | cost share 165% | trades/yr 50 | ctl pct 45.8 (16)
  market fx:
  Trend following  cells  12 versions  97 | gross>0 66% | before 34% costs 35% positive 31% | gate4 10% | 4+ gates 0% | all6 0 | cost share 94% | trades/yr 130 | ctl pct 68.8 (97)
  market btc:
  Trend following  cells   5 versions  15 | gross>0 95% | before 5% costs 42% positive 53% | gate4 30% | 4+ gates 18% | all6 0 | cost share 61% | trades/yr 318 | ctl pct 92.6 (15)
  market spy:

Question 6. Without the 34 ambiguous versions
  Trend following  cells  43 versions 277 | gross>0 79% | before 21% costs 30% positive 49% | gate4 24% | 4+ gates 10% | all6 3 | cost share 77% | trades/yr 162 | ctl pct 80.0 (277)
  Mean reversion   cells  13 versions  90 | gross>0 67% | before 33% costs 20% positive 48% | gate4 18% | 4+ gates 16% | all6 0 | cost share 89% | trades/yr 80 | ctl pct 64.5 (90)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  15 | gross>0 81% | before 19% costs 46% positive 35% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 267% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 90.6 (15)
  shuffle: grossPos diff 11 pts p 0.262; survived diff 1 pts p 0.921; gate4 diff 6 pts p 0.583; g4plus diff -6 pts p 0.433

Versions with all six gates: golden-cross-1-hour Gold GH-L-N (trend); noise-area-breakout-nq NA-NQ-NY-LS (breakout); noise-area-breakout-nq NA-NQ-NY-L (breakout)