VWAP deviation bands on gold (spec gvb_spec.md), raw clock. Run 2026-11-02T09:07:11.238Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (entry to stop) and $ per ounce, after $0.30 an ounce a round trip; 5-minute bars, tick volume. data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York === GVB-LD: London session, 08:00-16:30 London === sessions used 4945; by year (kept/weekdays): 2004 4/146 | 2005 0/260 | 2006 9/260 | 2007 158/261 | 2008 248/262 | 2009 254/261 | 2010 242/261 | 2011 240/260 | 2012 243/261 | 2013 258/261 | 2014 258/261 | 2015 257/261 | 2016 258/261 | 2017 257/260 | 2018 258/261 | 2019 258/261 | 2020 259/262 | 2021 257/261 | 2022 257/260 | 2023 257/260 | 2024 259/262 | 2025 256/261 | 2026 198/200 closes in the signal zone (while flat, after the warm-up): 56265; beyond 3 SD: 8915; direction already used: 48158; entries refused at or beyond the stop: 128 DEV n= 2313 net -9551.4 R avg -4.129 R PF 0.16 t -1.93 VAL n= 2859 net -4173.3 R avg -1.460 R PF 0.34 t -11.21 HOLDOUT n= 2807 net -2289.5 R avg -0.816 R PF 0.48 t -8.96 ALL n=7979 net -16014.2 R avg -2.007 R a trade (gross -0.065 R, mean cost 1.942 R); PF 0.27 t -3.22; in dollars -$0.26/oz a trade (gross +$0.04), total -$2091.90/oz; drawdown on closed trades -16022.8 R winners 21.4% (95% 20.5-22.3%); ended by vwap 1638 (20.5%), stop 6226 (78.0%), session close 115 (1.4%); stop median $0.51; minutes held median 5; without the 10 best -16524.9 R longs n=4018 avg -1.289 R (-$0.25/oz), gross +0.101 R, winners 20.7% | shorts n=3961 avg -2.736 R (-$0.27/oz), gross -0.234 R, winners 22.1% by stop size: under $1 n=6079 avg -2.577 R (-$0.27/oz), gross -0.086 R, winners 19.5% | $1 to $2 n=1294 avg -0.258 R (-$0.34/oz), gross -0.033 R, winners 25.2% | $2 to $5 n=537 avg -0.070 R (-$0.12/oz), gross +0.042 R, winners 30.4% | over $5 n=69 avg +0.330 R (+$0.79/oz), gross +0.371 R, winners 43.5% trend sessions n=3217 avg -3.435 R (-$0.35/oz), gross -0.508 R, winners 18.6% | consolidation sessions n=4762 avg -1.042 R (-$0.20/oz), gross +0.235 R, winners 23.3% 2004-2007 n=263 avg -7.282 R (-$0.36/oz), gross -1.225 R, winners 20.2% (thin data) cost scenarios: $0.30 -2.007 R | $0.45 -2.978 R (-$0.41/oz) | $0.75 -4.920 R (-$0.71/oz) by year (n, net R, $/oz): 2004 8 -9.8 R -$2.18 | 2006 14 -23.0 R -$4.28 | 2007 241 -1882.3 R -$87.36 | 2008 416 -5158.3 R -$97.36 | 2009 428 -776.1 R -$108.55 | 2010 406 -744.1 R -$77.65 | 2011 397 -493.2 R -$64.84 | 2012 403 -464.5 R -$113.37 | 2013 407 -310.6 R -$120.68 | 2014 422 -582.2 R -$54.09 | 2015 407 -475.2 R -$73.28 | 2016 425 -630.9 R -$78.08 | 2017 401 -910.5 R -$132.46 | 2018 388 -622.5 R -$98.75 | 2019 409 -641.5 R -$159.77 | 2020 405 -316.8 R -$98.17 | 2021 425 -321.0 R -$156.27 | 2022 403 -250.8 R -$109.61 | 2023 420 -378.2 R -$112.14 | 2024 428 -654.0 R -$205.83 | 2025 405 -285.9 R -$174.18 | 2026 321 -82.9 R +$37.00 by New York hour of entry (n, avg R): 03h 2533 -3.717 | 04h 1996 -2.046 | 05h 961 -0.840 | 06h 633 -0.614 | 07h 559 -0.854 | 08h 644 -0.790 | 09h 367 -0.500 | 10h 217 -0.558 | 11h 66 -0.366 | 12h 3 -0.881 control (trades moved to other sessions, same time after the open, stop scaled in SD, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 7978.30, median avg -1.225 R, 5-95% -1.595 R .. -0.984 R; real avg -2.007 R at percentile 0.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.34 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2313 / 2859 / 2807 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.93 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 0.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -16524.9 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -2289.5 R PF 0.48 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 11 trades touching a gap of more than 30 minutes; without them avg -2.009 R, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GVB-NY: New York session, 09:30-16:00 New York === sessions used 4757; by year (kept/weekdays): 2004 2/146 | 2005 1/260 | 2006 9/260 | 2007 113/261 | 2008 249/262 | 2009 245/261 | 2010 235/261 | 2011 236/260 | 2012 234/261 | 2013 249/261 | 2014 249/261 | 2015 248/261 | 2016 251/261 | 2017 250/260 | 2018 249/261 | 2019 249/261 | 2020 250/262 | 2021 248/261 | 2022 250/260 | 2023 248/260 | 2024 251/262 | 2025 249/261 | 2026 192/200 closes in the signal zone (while flat, after the warm-up): 27658; beyond 3 SD: 3395; direction already used: 21815; entries refused at or beyond the stop: 67 DEV n= 1684 net -1267.8 R avg -0.753 R PF 0.53 t -5.09 VAL n= 2108 net -2640.5 R avg -1.253 R PF 0.38 t -5.33 HOLDOUT n= 1984 net -915.8 R avg -0.462 R PF 0.64 t -4.59 ALL n=5776 net -4824.1 R avg -0.835 R a trade (gross +0.153 R, mean cost 0.988 R); PF 0.49 t -8.18; in dollars -$0.26/oz a trade (gross +$0.04), total -$1505.07/oz; drawdown on closed trades -4865.0 R winners 22.7% (95% 21.6-23.8%); ended by stop 4391 (76.0%), vwap 1175 (20.3%), session close 210 (3.6%); stop median $0.75; minutes held median 5; without the 10 best -5458.5 R longs n=2954 avg -0.600 R (-$0.21/oz), gross +0.266 R, winners 23.2% | shorts n=2822 avg -1.081 R (-$0.32/oz), gross +0.034 R, winners 22.1% by stop size: under $1 n=3647 avg -1.220 R (-$0.25/oz), gross +0.241 R, winners 19.3% | $1 to $2 n=1355 avg -0.185 R (-$0.24/oz), gross +0.039 R, winners 27.9% | $2 to $5 n=656 avg -0.172 R (-$0.39/oz), gross -0.061 R, winners 29.0% | over $5 n=118 avg -0.112 R (-$0.08/oz), gross -0.069 R, winners 32.2% trend sessions n=2202 avg -0.940 R (-$0.59/oz), gross -0.059 R, winners 17.5% | consolidation sessions n=3574 avg -0.770 R (-$0.06/oz), gross +0.283 R, winners 25.9% 2004-2007 n=159 avg -0.600 R (-$0.11/oz), gross +0.494 R, winners 27.7% (thin data) cost scenarios: $0.30 -0.835 R | $0.45 -1.329 R (-$0.41/oz) | $0.75 -2.317 R (-$0.71/oz) by year (n, net R, $/oz): 2004 3 +0.6 R -$0.06 | 2005 2 +3.2 R +$0.67 | 2006 10 -12.7 R -$4.90 | 2007 144 -86.4 R -$13.94 | 2008 301 -331.0 R -$65.29 | 2009 323 -284.1 R -$64.95 | 2010 317 -216.3 R -$22.51 | 2011 310 -91.9 R -$22.38 | 2012 274 -249.0 R -$120.49 | 2013 299 -415.8 R -$82.56 | 2014 292 -178.7 R -$87.19 | 2015 276 -264.3 R -$51.91 | 2016 308 -226.5 R -$83.60 | 2017 304 -369.5 R -$111.01 | 2018 325 -430.8 R -$77.61 | 2019 304 -754.9 R -$116.04 | 2020 301 -206.0 R -$58.98 | 2021 258 -140.1 R -$64.17 | 2022 302 -81.4 R -$37.45 | 2023 271 -206.2 R -$160.06 | 2024 315 -122.2 R -$128.96 | 2025 291 -190.5 R -$97.92 | 2026 246 +30.6 R -$33.74 by New York hour of entry (n, avg R): 10h 3623 -1.022 | 11h 983 -0.555 | 12h 480 -0.513 | 13h 342 -0.553 | 14h 216 -0.119 | 15h 132 -0.859 control (trades moved to other sessions, same time after the open, stop scaled in SD, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 5774.80, median avg -0.789 R, 5-95% -0.963 R .. -0.491 R; real avg -0.835 R at percentile 31.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.38 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1684 / 2108 / 1984 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -5.09 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 31.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -5458.5 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -915.8 R PF 0.64 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 2 trades touching a gap of more than 30 minutes; without them avg -0.835 R, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)